FRANCE LIGUE 1
03.05.2026 15:15
Stade de la Meinau
Referee: G. Angoula
Strasbourg
Match Timeline
Toulouse
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Yaya Diémé
Strasbourg
27'
S. Amo-Ameyaw · Assist: I. Doukoure
Strasbourg
43'
D. Methalie · Assist: C. Casseres
Toulouse
🔄
46'
A. Ouattara ↔ S. El Mourabet
Strasbourg
🟨
56'
Dayann Methalie
Toulouse
🔄
63'
M. Amougou ↔ D. Moreira
Strasbourg
🔄
63'
J. Russell-Rowe ↔ Emersonn
Toulouse
🔄
71'
I. Doukoure ↔ A. Omobamidele
Strasbourg
🔄
72'
Y. Dieme ↔ J. Enciso
Strasbourg
🟨
75'
Alexis Vossah
Toulouse
🔄
77'
D. Methalie ↔ W. Kamanzi
Toulouse
🔄
78'
S. Hidalgo ↔ D. Sidibe
Toulouse
🔄
82'
S. Nanasi ↔ E. Emegha
Strasbourg
🔄
82'
A. Vossah ↔ M. Sauer
Toulouse
🔄
82'
Y. Gboho ↔ I. Azizi
Toulouse
84'
Emersonn · Assist: C. Casseres
Toulouse
🟨
90+7'
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse

Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Strasbourg Win 68.5%
Draw 0%
Toulouse Win 31.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Strasbourg1.61
Toulouse1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Strasbourg Strasbourg
WWDLW
83 GF / 56 GA
Toulouse Toulouse
WLDWL
50 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
29
BTTS Yes
18
30
Over 2.5
19
5.1
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Strasbourg Strasbourg 48 matches
Toulouse Toulouse 36 matches
Strasbourg Statistic Toulouse
25 Wins 12
10 Draws 10
13 Losses 14
83 Goals For 50
56 Goals Against 52
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
29 BTTS Yes 18
37 Over 1.5 24
30 Over 2.5 19
16 Over 3.5 13
13 Clean Sheets 10
10 Failed To Score 10
5.1 Shots On Goal 4.33
12.38 Total Shots 12.92
4.27 Corners 4.56
55.2% Ball Possession 43.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Strasbourg's more proactive style and Toulouse's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Toulouse. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Toulouse arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Strasbourg expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Toulouse in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toulouse having the stronger overall control.

Strasbourg Analysis

Strasbourg sit 8 with 46 points after 30 league matches. The record of 13 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 49:39 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Panichelli (16 goals), Martial Godo (8 goals), E. Emegha (4 goals), with creative support from G. Doue (6 assists), D. Moreira (5 assists), Valentín Barco (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Toulouse Analysis

Toulouse approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 38 points from 31 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 43:44, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Y. Gboho (8 goals), Emersonn (5 goals), F. Magri (5 goals), with creative support from S. Hidalgo (5 assists), Aron Dønnum (4 assists), D. Sidibe (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Strasbourg won 7 times, Toulouse won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:16 from Strasbourg's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Strasbourg 4-2-3-1 / Toulouse 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Strasbourg 4, Toulouse 3
H2H summary: Strasbourg wins 7, draws 4, Toulouse wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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