BRAZIL SERIE B
03.05.2026 21:00
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Referee: B. Machado
Sport Recife
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Marcelo Ajul
Sport Recife
🟨
33'
Bruno Ferreira
Ceara
🔄
46'
Clayson ↔ Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
53'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife
🟨
57'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife
🟨
61'
Lucca
Ceara
🔄
66'
Melk ↔ Pedro Henrique
Ceara
🔄
66'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🔄
66'
Vinicius Zanocelo ↔ Juan Alano
Ceara
🔄
66'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Diego
Ceara
🟨
69'
Rafael Ramos
Ceara
71'
Madson · Assist: Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
🔄
75'
Madson ↔ Augusto
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Biel Fonseca ↔ Yago Felipe
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Fernandinho ↔ Giulio
Ceara
🟨
87'
Sánchez
Ceara
🔄
90'
Chrystian Barletta ↔ Iury Castilho
Sport Recife
🔄
90'
de Pena Carlos ↔ Max Alves
Sport Recife

Sport Recife vs Ceara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 71.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 39%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
71.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
57.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
39%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 28.7%
Draw 32.3%
Ceara Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife0.93
Ceara1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
6 GF / 4 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
8 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
3
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
1
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 6 matches
Ceara Ceara 6 matches
Sport Recife Statistic Ceara
2 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
0 Losses 0
6 Goals For 8
4 Goals Against 5
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
3 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.67
12.67 Total Shots 12.17
4.5 Corners 4.17
54% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ceara. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ceara having the stronger overall control.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife sit 7 with 10 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, while the 6:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Pedro Perotti (3 goals), Chrystian Barletta (2 goals), de Pena Carlos (1 goals), with creative support from de Pena Carlos (1 assists), Augusto (1 assists), Felipinho (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ceara Analysis

So far, Ceara have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 10 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses with goals at 8:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Juan Alano (2 goals), Matheus Araujo (2 goals), Fernandinho (1 goals), with creative support from Giulio (1 assists), Joao Gabriel (1 assists), Lucca (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 5 times, Ceara won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:14 from Sport Recife's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (71.3%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-3-3 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 5, draws 5, Ceara wins 5

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15
Ceara Away
29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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