SPAIN › LA LIGA
14.05.2026 19:30
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Referee: R. De Burgos
Real Madrid
Match Timeline
Oviedo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
44'
G. Garcia · Assist: B. Diaz
Real Madrid
🔄
54'
I. Chaira ↔ S. Cazorla
Oviedo
🔄
64'
T. Alexander-Arnold ↔ D. Carvajal
Real Madrid
🔄
64'
A. Tchouameni ↔ J. Bellingham
Real Madrid
🔄
69'
G. Garcia ↔ K. Mbappe
Real Madrid
🔄
69'
T. Fernandez ↔ H. Hassan
Oviedo
🔄
77'
B. Diaz ↔ C. Palacios
Real Madrid
🔄
77'
F. Mastantuono ↔ D. Yanez
Real Madrid
🔄
79'
N. Vidal ↔ L. Ahijado
Oviedo
🔄
79'
N. Fonseca ↔ P. Agudin
Oviedo
⚽
80'
J. Bellingham · Assist: K. Mbappe
Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs Oviedo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 22.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
22.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Real Madrid Win 84.6%
Draw 0%
Oviedo Win 15.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid1.92
Oviedo0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WWDLW
108 GF / 58 GA
Oviedo Oviedo
WLDWL
28 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
2.12
Average Goals Scored
0.78
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
31
BTTS Yes
13
33
Over 2.5
15
6.82
Shots on Goal
3.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Madrid Real Madrid 51 matches
Oviedo Oviedo 36 matches
Real Madrid Statistic Oviedo
34 Wins 6
5 Draws 11
12 Losses 19
108 Goals For 28
58 Goals Against 58
2.12 Avg Goals Scored 0.78
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
31 BTTS Yes 13
44 Over 1.5 24
33 Over 2.5 15
16 Over 3.5 7
16 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 18
6.82 Shots On Goal 3.42
17.82 Total Shots 10.19
6.49 Corners 3.89
57.9% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Real Madrid's more proactive style and Oviedo's more cautious structure. Real Madrid appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Oviedo. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Oviedo. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Real Madrid arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 77 points compared to Oviedo in 20 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Real Madrid Analysis

Real Madrid arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 77 points after 35 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 24 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 70:33 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Mbappe (24 goals), Vinícius Júnior (15 goals), F. Valverde (5 goals), with creative support from A. Guler (9 assists), F. Valverde (8 assists), Vinícius Júnior (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 14 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. Although they are without Rodrygo, F. Valverde, D. Ceballos, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Oviedo Analysis

Oviedo sit 20 with 29 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 18 defeats with a 26:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Federico Viñas (9 goals), Ilyas Chaira (6 goals), Alberto Reina (4 goals), with creative support from T. Fernandez (4 assists), H. Hassan (3 assists), Ilyas Chaira (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with K. Sibo, L. Dendoncker, E. Bailly, J. Lopez unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 2 times, Oviedo won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:0 from Real Madrid's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Real Madrid 4-4-2 / Oviedo 4-4-2
Missing players: Real Madrid 8, Oviedo 5
H2H summary: Real Madrid wins 2, draws 0, Oviedo wins 0

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2