FRANCE › LIGUE 1
02.05.2026 15:00
Parc des Princes
Referee: B. Dechepy
Paris Saint Germain
Match Timeline
Lorient
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
I. Mbaye
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
12'
P. Pagis · Assist: P. Katseris
Lorient
🟨
47'
Lucas Hernández
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
61'
F. Ruiz ↔ W. Zaire-Emery
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
62'
I. Mbaye ↔ J. Neves
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
62'
W. Zaire-Emery · Assist: D. Doue
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
72'
P. Pagis ↔ D. Karim
Lorient
🔄
72'
B. Dieng ↔ A. Tosin
Lorient
🔄
73'
A. Avom ↔ J. Makengo
Lorient
🔄
75'
D. Doue ↔ P. Mounguengue
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
78'
A. Tosin
Lorient
🔄
80'
P. Katseris ↔ D. Yongwa
Lorient
VAR
90+6'
Senny Mayulu
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
90'
Darlin Yongwa
Lorient

Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 93%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
93%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Paris Saint Germain Win 93%
Draw 0%
Lorient Win 7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain2.01
Lorient1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WWDLW
117 GF / 49 GA
Lorient Lorient
WLDWL
54 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
2.44
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
23
BTTS Yes
18
32
Over 2.5
15
7
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 48 matches
Lorient Lorient 35 matches
Paris Saint Germain Statistic Lorient
33 Wins 13
7 Draws 12
8 Losses 10
117 Goals For 54
49 Goals Against 48
2.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
23 BTTS Yes 18
39 Over 1.5 30
32 Over 2.5 15
19 Over 3.5 12
22 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 10
7 Shots On Goal 4.17
18.13 Total Shots 12.2
6 Corners 3.6
68.2% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Paris Saint Germain's more proactive style and Lorient's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Paris Saint Germain come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Paris Saint Germain expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Lorient in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lorient having the stronger overall control. Paris Saint Germain arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 69 points compared to Lorient in 9 on 41, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lorient.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Paris Saint Germain come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 69 points after 30 matches. The return of 22 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 68:25, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through B. Barcola (10 goals), O. Dembele (10 goals), K. Kvaratskhelia (7 goals), with creative support from Vitinha (7 assists), O. Dembele (6 assists), N. Mendes (5 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 12 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Lorient Analysis

Lorient sit 9 with 41 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 42:47, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (9 goals), Pablo Pagis (9 goals), A. Tosin (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kouassi (6 assists), Pablo Pagis (3 assists), Bamo Meïté (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 9 times, Lorient won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:15 from Paris Saint Germain's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 / Lorient 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Paris Saint Germain wins 9, draws 4, Lorient wins 2

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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