GREECE SUPER LEAGUE 1
03.05.2026 18:00
Olympic Stadium of Athens
Referee: H. U. Meler
Panathinaikos
Match Timeline
AEK Athens FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Domagoj Vida
AEK Athens FC
🟨
-5'
Martin Georgiev
AEK Athens FC
🟥
17'
Javier Hernández
Panathinaikos
🟨
39'
Sverrir Ingason
Panathinaikos
🟨
42'
Stavros Pilios
AEK Athens FC
🟨
45'
Filipe Relvas
AEK Athens FC
🔄
46'
S. Pilios ↔ J. Penrice
AEK Athens FC
🔄
58'
R. Pereyra ↔ Joao Mario
AEK Athens FC
🔄
58'
Zini ↔ L. Jovic
AEK Athens FC
🔄
69'
S. Kontouris ↔ A. Bakasetas
Panathinaikos
🔄
69'
V. Taborda ↔ F. Pellistri
Panathinaikos
🔄
73'
O. Pineda ↔ N. Eliasson
AEK Athens FC
🔄
77'
S. Andino ↔ A. Zaroury
Panathinaikos
🟨
87'
João Mário
AEK Athens FC
🔄
88'
A. Tetteh ↔ M. Pantovic
Panathinaikos
🟨
90+3'
Răzvan Marin
AEK Athens FC

Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Panathinaikos Win 41%
Draw 13.2%
AEK Athens FC Win 45.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Panathinaikos1.12
AEK Athens FC1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Panathinaikos Panathinaikos
WWDLW
62 GF / 48 GA
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
WLDWL
83 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.89
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.77
24
BTTS Yes
17
21
Over 2.5
21
4.33
Shots on Goal
4.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 46 matches
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 44 matches
Panathinaikos Statistic AEK Athens FC
19 Wins 29
17 Draws 10
10 Losses 5
62 Goals For 83
48 Goals Against 34
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.77
24 BTTS Yes 17
34 Over 1.5 31
21 Over 2.5 21
11 Over 3.5 16
16 Clean Sheets 23
13 Failed To Score 6
4.33 Shots On Goal 4.73
12.41 Total Shots 14.27
4.65 Corners 5.05
49.5% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. AEK Athens FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 66 points while Panathinaikos sit 4 on 50, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Panathinaikos expected to line up in 5-4-1 and AEK Athens FC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AEK Athens FC having the stronger overall control. AEK Athens FC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AEK Athens FC.

Panathinaikos Analysis

Panathinaikos arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 50 points after 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, while the 44:28 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Alexander Jeremejeff (6 goals), Anastasios Bakasetas (5 goals), K. Swiderski (5 goals), with creative support from D. Calabria (4 assists), Anastasios Bakasetas (3 assists), Tete (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

AEK Athens FC Analysis

AEK Athens FC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 66 points after 28 outings. The return of 20 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 53:17, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Luka Jović (16 goals), B. Varga (5 goals), Orbelín Pineda (5 goals), with creative support from R. Marin (7 assists), Lazaros Rota (5 assists), Robert Ljubičić (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Panathinaikos won 4 times, AEK Athens FC won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:22 from Panathinaikos's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Panathinaikos 5-4-1 / AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Panathinaikos wins 4, draws 4, AEK Athens FC wins 7

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 6 2 49:17 32 60
D D W D W
2 26 17 7 2 45:11 34 58
D W D L W
3 26 17 6 3 52:17 35 57
D D D W L
4 26 14 7 5 44:26 18 49
D L L D L
5 26 12 6 8 51:37 14 42
L W W W L
6 26 10 2 14 34:45 -11 32
W L L L W
7 26 9 4 13 26:38 -12 31
L L L L L
8 26 6 12 8 20:27 -7 30
W W W W W
9 26 7 8 11 26:30 -4 29
W L W L L
10 26 6 9 11 32:42 -10 27
W D L W W
11 26 7 5 14 24:38 -14 26
L D D W L
12 26 4 11 11 22:39 -17 23
L W D D D
13 26 4 5 17 16:55 -39 17
L D L L D
14 26 3 8 15 22:41 -19 17
W D W D W
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round