ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
28.04.2026 18:45
Sixfields Stadium
Referee: Jamie O'Connor, England
Northampton
Match Timeline
Barnsley
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
37'
R. Cleary · Assist: P. Kelly
Barnsley
🔄
46'
T. Bradshaw ↔ A. Phillips
Barnsley
🟨
55'
Corey O'Keeffe
Barnsley
🔄
72'
J. Guthrie ↔ E. List
Northampton
🔄
72'
R. Cleary ↔ S. Banks
Barnsley
🔄
73'
P. Kelly ↔ L. Farrell
Barnsley
🔄
80'
D. Campbell ↔ T. Eaves
Northampton
🔄
84'
C. O'Keeffe ↔ K. Nwakali
Barnsley
🟨
87'
Elliot List
Northampton

Northampton vs Barnsley Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 16.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
17.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
16.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87%
- ▥
HT / FT Away / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Northampton Win 1.1%
Draw 16.8%
Barnsley Win 82.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Northampton1.15
Barnsley1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Northampton Northampton
WWDLW
38 GF / 73 GA
Barnsley Barnsley
WLDWL
71 GF / 76 GA
Key Stats
0.84
Average Goals Scored
1.51
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
22
BTTS Yes
32
22
Over 2.5
30
2.78
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Northampton Northampton 45 matches
Barnsley Barnsley 47 matches
Northampton Statistic Barnsley
9 Wins 16
8 Draws 14
28 Losses 17
38 Goals For 71
73 Goals Against 76
0.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
22 BTTS Yes 32
32 Over 1.5 39
22 Over 2.5 30
12 Over 3.5 22
10 Clean Sheets 4
18 Failed To Score 12
2.78 Shots On Goal 3.83
8.93 Total Shots 11.49
4.76 Corners 4.83
43.6% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Northampton have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Northampton expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Barnsley in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Barnsley having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Barnsley. Barnsley carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 15 with 56 points while Northampton sit 24 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Northampton Analysis

Northampton approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 24 with 35 points from 44 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 27 defeats, and the 37:70 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Eaves (8 goals), Cameron McGeehan (7 goals), S. Hoskins (6 goals), with creative support from D. Campbell (5 assists), N. Guinness-Walker (3 assists), Terry Taylor (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Barnsley Analysis

With 56 points from 44 games and a place of 15, Barnsley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 14 wins, 14 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 66:70, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through David McGoldrick (15 goals), D. Keillor-Dunn (13 goals), A. Phillips (8 goals), with creative support from Reyes Cleary (13 assists), A. Phillips (5 assists), Patrick Kelly (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Northampton won 1 times, Barnsley won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:11 from Northampton's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (98.9%)
Predicted formations: Northampton 4-4-2 / Barnsley 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Northampton wins 1, draws 3, Barnsley wins 3

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two