FRANCE › LIGUE 1
02.05.2026 13:00
Stade de la Beaujoire
Referee: J. Pignard
Nantes
Match Timeline
Marseille
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Matthis Abline
Nantes
🔄
26'
D. Machado ↔ M. Acapandie
Nantes
🟨
31'
Quinten Timber
Marseille
🔄
46'
P. Aubameyang ↔ E. Lago
Marseille
🔄
46'
Q. Timber ↔ I. Paixao
Marseille
🟨
49'
Ange Lago
Marseille
⚽
50'
I. Ganago · Assist: M. Abline
Nantes
⚽
54'
R. Cabella · Assist: I. Ganago
Nantes
⚽
58'
M. Abline · Assist: M. Kaba
Nantes
🔄
65'
A. Vermeeren ↔ A. Gouiri
Marseille
🔄
69'
M. Kaba ↔ F. Coquelin
Nantes
🔄
69'
R. Cabella ↔ L. Leroux
Nantes
🔄
79'
F. Guilbert ↔ Ali Youssef
Nantes
🔄
79'
I. Sissoko ↔ U. Radakovic
Nantes
🟨
81'
Facundo Medina
Marseille
🔄
88'
L. Balerdi ↔ H. Hamzaoui
Marseille
🔄
90+4'
H. J. Traore ↔ U. Lamare El Kadmiri
Marseille

Nantes vs Marseille Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 44.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
44.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nantes Win 27.7%
Draw 12.2%
Marseille Win 60.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nantes1.11
Marseille1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nantes Nantes
WWDLW
32 GF / 55 GA
Marseille Marseille
WLDWL
90 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
2.09
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
17
BTTS Yes
21
15
Over 2.5
30
3.39
Shots on Goal
5.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nantes Nantes 33 matches
Marseille Marseille 43 matches
Nantes Statistic Marseille
5 Wins 22
9 Draws 6
19 Losses 15
32 Goals For 90
55 Goals Against 57
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 2.09
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
17 BTTS Yes 21
23 Over 1.5 34
15 Over 2.5 30
8 Over 3.5 18
6 Clean Sheets 12
13 Failed To Score 10
3.39 Shots On Goal 5.72
11.03 Total Shots 14.79
3.42 Corners 5.33
42.9% Ball Possession 57.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Marseille's more proactive style and Nantes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Marseille arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Marseille. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nantes expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Marseille in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Marseille having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Marseille carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 53 points while Nantes sit 17 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Nantes Analysis

Nantes sit 17 with 20 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats with a 26:51 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Abline (5 goals), Mostafa Mohamed (4 goals), Fabien Centonze (3 goals), with creative support from M. Abline (3 assists), Chidozie Awaziem (2 assists), B. Guirassy (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Marseille Analysis

Marseille sit 6 with 53 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 16 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 59:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixão (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nantes won 4 times, Marseille won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:21 from Nantes's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: Nantes 4-1-4-1 / Marseille 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nantes wins 4, draws 3, Marseille wins 8

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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