POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
02.05.2026 18:15
Motor Lublin Arena
Referee: K. Arys
Motor Lublin
Match Timeline
Lech Poznan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
19'
A. Gholizadeh ↔ D. Hakans
Lech Poznan
40'
L. Bengtsson · Assist: J. Pereira
Lech Poznan
🔄
65'
M. Ndiaye ↔ M. Krol
Motor Lublin
🔄
65'
B. van Hoeven ↔ Fabio Ronaldo
Motor Lublin
🔄
65'
↔ L. Palma
Lech Poznan
🔄
65'
P. Walemark ↔ F. Jagiello
Lech Poznan
🔄
77'
K. Czubak ↔ R. Dadashov
Motor Lublin
🔄
77'
P. Stolarski ↔ F. Wojcik
Motor Lublin
🔄
79'
M. Gurgul ↔ R. Gumny
Lech Poznan
🔄
79'
L. Bengtsson ↔ T. Ismaheel
Lech Poznan
🔄
86'
I. Rodrigues ↔ K. Karasek
Motor Lublin

Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Motor Lublin Win 31.3%
Draw 13.1%
Lech Poznan Win 55.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Motor Lublin1.34
Lech Poznan1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
WWDLW
39 GF / 45 GA
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
WLDWL
86 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.87
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
19
BTTS Yes
32
14
Over 2.5
31
3.6
Shots on Goal
5.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 30 matches
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 46 matches
Motor Lublin Statistic Lech Poznan
9 Wins 23
12 Draws 12
9 Losses 11
39 Goals For 86
45 Goals Against 64
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.87
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
19 BTTS Yes 32
24 Over 1.5 37
14 Over 2.5 31
9 Over 3.5 20
7 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 4
3.6 Shots On Goal 5.48
11.5 Total Shots 15.22
5.5 Corners 4.91
51.6% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lech Poznan's more proactive style and Motor Lublin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lech Poznan. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Motor Lublin expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Lech Poznan in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lech Poznan having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Lech Poznan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 52 points while Motor Lublin sit 10 on 39, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Motor Lublin Analysis

Motor Lublin sit 10 with 39 points after 30 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 12 draws, and 9 losses, while the 39:45 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Czubak (16 goals), M. Ndiaye (8 goals), B. Wolski (4 goals), with creative support from B. van Hoeven (4 assists), K. Czubak (3 assists), B. Wolski (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lech Poznan Analysis

Lech Poznan come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 52 points after 30 matches. With 14 wins, 10 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 55:41, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Ishak (15 goals), Luis Palma (7 goals), Ali Gholizadeh (6 goals), with creative support from Luis Palma (5 assists), Ali Gholizadeh (4 assists), J. Pereira (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Motor Lublin won 1 times, Lech Poznan won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Motor Lublin's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1 / Lech Poznan 4-4-2
H2H summary: Motor Lublin wins 1, draws 1, Lech Poznan wins 2

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation