FRANCE LIGUE 1
03.05.2026 18:45
Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Referee: C. Turpin
Lyon
Match Timeline
Rennes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
M. Tamari · Assist: E. Lepaul
Rennes
🟨
23'
Esteban Lepaul
Rennes
37'
R. Yaremchuk · Assist: C. Tolisso
Lyon
🟨
40'
Brice Samba
Rennes
42'
C. Tolisso
Lyon
48'
E. Lepaul · Assist: M. Tamari
Rennes
52'
A. Moreira · Assist: Abner Vinicius
Lyon
🔄
70'
R. Yaremchuk ↔ P. Sulc
Lyon
🔄
70'
S. Szymanski ↔ L. Blas
Rennes
🔄
71'
A. Seidu ↔ M. Nagida
Rennes
75'
Endrick · Assist: C. Tolisso
Lyon
🟨
82'
Quentin Merlin
Rennes
🔄
84'
Endrick ↔ E. Nuamah
Lyon
🔄
84'
T. Morton ↔ R. Kluivert
Lyon
🔄
84'
K. Merah ↔ M. de Carvalho
Lyon
🔄
87'
E. Lepaul ↔ Y. Zabiri
Rennes
🔄
87'
M. Tamari ↔ N. Mukiele
Rennes
🔄
87'
M. Camara ↔ D. Cisse
Rennes
🔄
90+3'
Abner Vinicius ↔ N. Nartey
Lyon

Lyon vs Rennes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lyon Win 33.1%
Draw 5.5%
Rennes Win 61.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lyon1.55
Rennes1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lyon Lyon
WWDLW
76 GF / 43 GA
Rennes Rennes
WLDWL
60 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.76
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
20
BTTS Yes
18
22
Over 2.5
24
4.93
Shots on Goal
5.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lyon Lyon 45 matches
Rennes Rennes 34 matches
Lyon Statistic Rennes
27 Wins 18
8 Draws 8
10 Losses 8
76 Goals For 60
43 Goals Against 46
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
20 BTTS Yes 18
31 Over 1.5 28
22 Over 2.5 24
12 Over 3.5 16
22 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 7
4.93 Shots On Goal 5.18
12.84 Total Shots 15.03
5.33 Corners 6.15
56.6% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rennes. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lyon expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rennes in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rennes having the stronger overall control. Rennes look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Lyon Analysis

Lyon come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 57 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 17 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a 48:32 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on P. Sulc (11 goals), C. Tolisso (9 goals), Endrick (4 goals), with creative support from Afonso Moreira (7 assists), Endrick (6 assists), A. Maitland-Niles (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Rennes Analysis

Rennes approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 56 points after 31 outings. The return of 16 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 54:42, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through B. Embolo (8 goals), L. Blas (5 goals), Mousa Tamari (5 goals), with creative support from Mousa Tamari (5 assists), Valentin Rongier (5 assists), L. Blas (4 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lyon won 5 times, Rennes won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:30 from Lyon's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Lyon 4-2-3-1 / Rennes 4-4-2
Missing players: Lyon 4, Rennes 4
H2H summary: Lyon wins 5, draws 1, Rennes wins 8

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4
Lyon Home
34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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