FRANCE › LIGUE 1
13.05.2026 19:00
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Referee: B. Bastien
Lens
Match Timeline
Paris Saint Germain
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
29'
K. Kvaratskhelia · Assist: O. Dembele
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
45'
Ilya Zabarnyi
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
46'
B. Barcola ↔ Vitinha
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
60'
S. Baidoo ↔ K. Antonio
Lens
🔄
60'
W. Said ↔ F. Thauvin
Lens
🔄
61'
O. Edouard ↔ A. Saint-Maximin
Lens
🔄
61'
L. Hernandez ↔ F. Ruiz
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
72'
K. Kvaratskhelia ↔ G. Ramos
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
76'
O. Dembele ↔ I. Mbaye
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
76'
J. Neves ↔ D. Lucea
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
85'
A. Sima ↔ F. Sotoca
Lens
🔄
85'
R. Aguilar ↔ A. Bulatovic
Lens
⚽
90'
I. Mbaye · Assist: D. Doue
Paris Saint Germain

Lens vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 83.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
83.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lens Win 41.6%
Draw 9.4%
Paris Saint Germain Win 49%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lens1.67
Paris Saint Germain1.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lens Lens
WWDLW
78 GF / 39 GA
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WLDWL
121 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
2.37
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
21
BTTS Yes
25
26
Over 2.5
33
5.78
Shots on Goal
6.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lens Lens 37 matches
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 51 matches
Lens Statistic Paris Saint Germain
25 Wins 34
5 Draws 9
7 Losses 8
78 Goals For 121
39 Goals Against 52
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 2.37
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
21 BTTS Yes 25
31 Over 1.5 41
26 Over 2.5 33
13 Over 3.5 20
12 Clean Sheets 23
5 Failed To Score 4
5.78 Shots On Goal 6.96
16.49 Total Shots 18.27
6.32 Corners 6.29
52.9% Ball Possession 67.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lens expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Paris Saint Germain in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Paris Saint Germain having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Paris Saint Germain.

Lens Analysis

Lens arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 67 points after 32 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 62:33 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Odsonne Édouard (12 goals), F. Thauvin (10 goals), W. Said (10 goals), with creative support from Adrien Thomasson (9 assists), Matthieu Udol (7 assists), F. Thauvin (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 14 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with J. Gradit, R. Gurtner, S. Abdulhamid unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Paris Saint Germain approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 73 points after 32 outings. They have recorded 23 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 71:27 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on B. Barcola (10 goals), O. Dembele (10 goals), D. Doue (7 goals), with creative support from Vitinha (7 assists), O. Dembele (6 assists), N. Mendes (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Hakimi, Q. Ndjantou, L. Chevalier unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lens won 3 times, Paris Saint Germain won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:25 from Lens's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Lens 3-4-2-1 / Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Missing players: Lens 3, Paris Saint Germain 7
H2H summary: Lens wins 3, draws 3, Paris Saint Germain wins 9

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2
Lens Home
34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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