FRANCE › LIGUE 1
08.05.2026 18:45
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Referee: M. Vernice
Lens
Match Timeline
Nantes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Abdallah Sima
Lens
🟨
36'
Andrija Bulatovic
Lens
🔄
46'
R. Fofana ↔ F. Sotoca
Lens
🔄
59'
O. Edouard ↔ R. Aguilar
Lens
🔄
65'
A. Haidara ↔ F. Sylla
Lens
🔄
66'
U. Radakovic ↔ Ali Youssef
Nantes
VAR
72'
Abdallah Sima
Lens
🟨
75'
Ali Youssef
Nantes
🔄
79'
W. Said ↔ A. Bermont
Lens
🔄
79'
A. Sima ↔ M. Soares
Lens
⚽
79'
M. Soares · Assist: A. Bulatovic
Lens
🔄
82'
M. Abline ↔ Y. El Arabi
Nantes
🔄
82'
I. Ganago ↔ Mostafa Mohamed
Nantes
🔄
82'
M. Kaba ↔ L. Leroux
Nantes
🔄
87'
F. Guilbert ↔ D. Tabibou
Nantes

Lens vs Nantes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 96.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 15.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 19.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
96.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
15.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
19.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lens Win 96.5%
Draw 0%
Nantes Win 3.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lens1.93
Nantes1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lens Lens
WWDLW
77 GF / 39 GA
Nantes Nantes
WLDWL
35 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
2.14
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
21
BTTS Yes
17
26
Over 2.5
16
5.81
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lens Lens 36 matches
Nantes Nantes 34 matches
Lens Statistic Nantes
24 Wins 6
5 Draws 9
7 Losses 19
77 Goals For 35
39 Goals Against 55
2.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
21 BTTS Yes 17
31 Over 1.5 24
26 Over 2.5 16
13 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 13
5.81 Shots On Goal 3.47
16.56 Total Shots 11.21
6.28 Corners 3.53
52.6% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lens's more proactive style and Nantes's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lens arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 64 points compared to Nantes in 17 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lens expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Nantes in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nantes having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Nantes.

Lens Analysis

Placed 2 with 64 points from 31 outings, Lens continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 20 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 61:33 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Odsonne Édouard (12 goals), F. Thauvin (10 goals), W. Said (10 goals), with creative support from Adrien Thomasson (9 assists), Matthieu Udol (7 assists), F. Thauvin (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 13 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with J. Gradit, R. Gurtner, S. Abdulhamid, M. Sangare, A. Thomasson unavailable.

Nantes Analysis

With 23 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Nantes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats with a 29:51 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Abline (6 goals), Mostafa Mohamed (4 goals), Fabien Centonze (3 goals), with creative support from M. Abline (4 assists), Chidozie Awaziem (2 assists), M. Kaba (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Centonze, T. Tati, K. Amian unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lens won 8 times, Nantes won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from Lens's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lens 3-4-2-1 / Nantes 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lens 7, Nantes 5
H2H summary: Lens wins 8, draws 4, Nantes wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2
Lens Home
34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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