UKRAINE PREMIER LEAGUE
02.05.2026 15:00
Ukraina Stadium
Referee: M. Balakin
Karpaty
Match Timeline
LNZ Cherkasy
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Yehor Tverdokhlib
LNZ Cherkasy
🟨
45+2'
Ambrosiy Chachua
Karpaty
🔄
61'
M. Sapuga ↔ Jean Pedroso
Karpaty
🟨
64'
Artur Mykytyshyn
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
68'
A. Mykytyshyn ↔ M. Jashari
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
68'
Y. Tverdokhlib ↔ Y. Pastukh
LNZ Cherkasy
🟨
71'
Jean Pedroso
Karpaty
🔄
72'
O. Sych ↔ D. Miroshnichenko
Karpaty
🔄
72'
B. Faal ↔ Y. Karabin
Karpaty
🟨
76'
Muharrem Jashari
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
79'
M. Assinor ↔ D. Kravchuk
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
82'
Y. Kostenko ↔ V. Paulo
Karpaty
🔄
82'
Bruninho ↔ V. Rubchynskyi
Karpaty
🟨
90+3'
Denis Miroshnichenko
Karpaty

Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 43.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
43.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
82.5%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Karpaty Win 35.9%
Draw 8.4%
LNZ Cherkasy Win 55.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Karpaty1.1
LNZ Cherkasy1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Karpaty Karpaty
WWDLW
35 GF / 26 GA
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy
WLDWL
36 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.64
9
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
8
3.17
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Karpaty Karpaty 25 matches
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy 25 matches
Karpaty Statistic LNZ Cherkasy
9 Wins 16
9 Draws 4
7 Losses 5
35 Goals For 36
26 Goals Against 16
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.64
9 BTTS Yes 6
17 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 4
12 Clean Sheets 16
7 Failed To Score 5
3.17 Shots On Goal 3.5
8.3 Total Shots 9.05
2.65 Corners 3.95
31.7% Ball Possession 33.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Karpaty expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and LNZ Cherkasy in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward LNZ Cherkasy having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring LNZ Cherkasy. LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 52 points while Karpaty sit 8 on 36, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Karpaty come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Karpaty Analysis

Karpaty are currently 8 in the standings with 36 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, while the 35:26 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Bruninho (7 goals), Igor Krasnopir (6 goals), Yan Kostenko (5 goals), with creative support from Bruninho (3 assists), Igor Krasnopir (2 assists), Jean Pedroso (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

LNZ Cherkasy Analysis

Placed 2 with 52 points from 25 outings, LNZ Cherkasy continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 16 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 36:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Mark Assinor (8 goals), P. Obah (8 goals), Artur Ryabov (3 goals), with creative support from P. Obah (3 assists), M. Jashari (3 assists), S. Nonikashvili (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Karpaty won 3 times, LNZ Cherkasy won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Karpaty's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Karpaty 4-1-4-1 / LNZ Cherkasy 5-3-2
H2H summary: Karpaty wins 3, draws 2, LNZ Cherkasy wins 3

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga