ITALY › SERIE A
22.05.2026 18:45
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Referee: M. Perri
Fiorentina
Match Timeline
Atalanta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
39'
R. Piccoli · Assist: M. Brescianini
Fiorentina
🔄
46'
R. Bellanova ↔ D. Zappacosta
Atalanta
🟨
47'
Kamaldeen Sulemana
Atalanta
🟨
60'
Honest Ahanor
Atalanta
🔄
62'
L. Samardzic ↔ C. De Ketelaere
Atalanta
🔄
67'
D. Rugani ↔ M. Pongracic
Fiorentina
🔄
67'
M. Brescianini ↔ C. Ndour
Fiorentina
🔄
67'
G. Scalvini ↔ B. Djimsiti
Atalanta
🔄
76'
A. Gudmundsson ↔ M. Solomon
Fiorentina
🔄
76'
R. Gosens ↔ L. Balbo
Fiorentina
🔄
81'
K. Sulemana ↔ D. Vavassori
Atalanta
🔄
81'
M. De Roon ↔ G. Scamacca
Atalanta
⚽
82'
P. Comuzzo
Atalanta
🔄
87'
O. Christensen ↔ L. Lezzerini
Fiorentina

Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fiorentina Win 36.6%
Draw 10.8%
Atalanta Win 52.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina1.22
Atalanta1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WWDLW
66 GF / 69 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
76 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
29
BTTS Yes
27
31
Over 2.5
25
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fiorentina Fiorentina 52 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 53 matches
Fiorentina Statistic Atalanta
18 Wins 22
14 Draws 16
20 Losses 15
66 Goals For 76
69 Goals Against 61
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
29 BTTS Yes 27
39 Over 1.5 40
31 Over 2.5 25
12 Over 3.5 14
14 Clean Sheets 18
14 Failed To Score 12
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.57
13.37 Total Shots 14.64
4.62 Corners 5.26
51.1% Ball Possession 53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atalanta's more proactive style and Fiorentina's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atalanta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Atalanta carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 58 points while Fiorentina sit 15 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fiorentina expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atalanta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atalanta having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fiorentina Analysis

Fiorentina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 41 points from 37 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 14 draws, and 14 defeats with a 40:49 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (7 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), H. Nicolussi Caviglia (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Parisi, M. Kean unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Atalanta Analysis

So far, Atalanta have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 58 points from 37 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses, while the 50:35 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from N. Krstovic (5 assists), C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with O. Kossounou, L. Bernasconi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina won 7 times, Atalanta won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:25 from Fiorentina's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Fiorentina 4-3-3 / Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Fiorentina 3, Atalanta 2
H2H summary: Fiorentina wins 7, draws 2, Atalanta wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B