SPAIN LA LIGA
03.05.2026 19:00
RCDE Stadium
Referee: J. Manzano
Espanyol
Match Timeline
Real Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
14'
F. Mendy ↔ F. Garcia
Real Madrid
🟨
22'
Brahim Díaz
Real Madrid
🟨
23'
Vinicius Júnior
Real Madrid
🟨
26'
Omar El Hilali
Espanyol
VAR
26'
Omar El Hilali
Espanyol
🟨
45+2'
Edu Expósito
Espanyol
🟨
50'
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Real Madrid
🔄
53'
T. Pitarch ↔ F. Mastantuono
Real Madrid
🔄
53'
B. Diaz ↔ G. Garcia
Real Madrid
55'
Vinicius Junior · Assist: G. Garcia
Real Madrid
🔄
61'
Exposito ↔ C. Pickel
Espanyol
🔄
61'
R. Sanchez ↔ A. Roca
Espanyol
66'
Vinicius Junior · Assist: J. Bellingham
Real Madrid
🔄
73'
T. Dolan ↔ P. Milla
Espanyol
🔄
73'
R. Terrats ↔ Jofre
Espanyol
🔄
73'
R. Fernandez Jaen ↔ K. Garcia
Espanyol
🟨
75'
Gonzalo García
Real Madrid
🔄
84'
A. Tchouameni ↔ E. Camavinga
Real Madrid
🔄
84'
Vinicius Junior ↔ C. Palacios
Real Madrid
🟨
85'
Urko González
Espanyol

Espanyol vs Real Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 83.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
83.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Espanyol Win 16.6%
Draw 0%
Real Madrid Win 83.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Espanyol1.12
Real Madrid1.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Espanyol Espanyol
WWDLW
39 GF / 51 GA
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WLDWL
106 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
2.16
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
20
BTTS Yes
31
18
Over 2.5
33
3.89
Shots on Goal
6.98

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Espanyol Espanyol 35 matches
Real Madrid Real Madrid 49 matches
Espanyol Statistic Real Madrid
11 Wins 33
9 Draws 5
15 Losses 11
39 Goals For 106
51 Goals Against 56
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 2.16
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
20 BTTS Yes 31
25 Over 1.5 42
18 Over 2.5 33
9 Over 3.5 16
9 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 4
3.89 Shots On Goal 6.98
12.34 Total Shots 18.08
4.69 Corners 6.47
41.7% Ball Possession 58%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Real Madrid's more proactive style and Espanyol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Espanyol expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Real Madrid in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Real Madrid having the stronger overall control. Real Madrid carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 74 points while Espanyol sit 13 on 39, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Espanyol have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Real Madrid. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Espanyol Analysis

Espanyol sit 13 with 39 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 37:49, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through K. Garcia (6 goals), P. Milla (6 goals), R. Fernandez Jaen (6 goals), with creative support from Exposito (6 assists), T. Dolan (4 assists), R. Fernandez Jaen (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Madrid Analysis

Placed 2 with 74 points from 33 outings, Real Madrid continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 23 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 68:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Mbappe (24 goals), Vinícius Júnior (13 goals), F. Valverde (5 goals), with creative support from A. Guler (9 assists), F. Valverde (8 assists), Vinícius Júnior (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Espanyol won 3 times, Real Madrid won 12 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:31 from Espanyol's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Espanyol 4-4-1-1 / Real Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Espanyol 3, Real Madrid 7
H2H summary: Espanyol wins 3, draws 0, Real Madrid wins 12

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2