02.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Municipal de Ipurua
Referee: L. Bestard Servera
Eibar
Match Timeline
Malaga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
José Corpas
Eibar
VAR
6'
Diego Murillo
Malaga
🟨
7'
Lander Olaetxea
Eibar
8'
Chupe
Malaga
🟨
19'
Izan Merino
Malaga
20'
S. Alvarez · Assist: A. Arambarri
Eibar
32'
J. Corpas
Eibar
🔄
46'
I. Merino ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
🔄
62'
L. Olaetxea ↔ J. Martinez
Eibar
🔄
62'
D. Larrubia ↔ A. Nino
Malaga
🔄
62'
R. Rodriguez ↔ H. Abaida
Malaga
🔄
63'
A. Ares ↔ Javier Marton
Eibar
65'
A. Nino · Assist: Chupe
Malaga
🔄
70'
Chupe ↔ D. Brasanac
Malaga
🟨
73'
Carlos Dotor
Malaga
78'
D. Brasanac · Assist: J. Munoz
Malaga
🔄
79'
S. Cubero ↔ A. Rodriguez
Eibar
🔄
79'
A. Madariaga ↔ A. Garrido
Eibar
84'
A. Nino · Assist: J. Munoz
Malaga
🔄
85'
J. Corpas ↔ J. Bernat
Eibar
🔄
85'
J. Munoz ↔ A. Ochoa
Malaga
🟨
90+2'
Diego Murillo
Malaga

Eibar vs Malaga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Eibar Win 56.7%
Draw 8.2%
Malaga Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Eibar1.29
Malaga1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Eibar Eibar
WWDLW
52 GF / 35 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
66 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.69
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
17
BTTS Yes
24
19
Over 2.5
24
3.92
Shots on Goal
5.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Eibar Eibar 40 matches
Malaga Malaga 39 matches
Eibar Statistic Malaga
19 Wins 18
10 Draws 9
11 Losses 12
52 Goals For 66
35 Goals Against 50
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
17 BTTS Yes 24
24 Over 1.5 30
19 Over 2.5 24
7 Over 3.5 12
17 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 6
3.92 Shots On Goal 5.03
11.03 Total Shots 12.9
4.33 Corners 3.87
48.1% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Malaga. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Eibar come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Eibar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Malaga in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Malaga having the stronger overall control.

Eibar Analysis

Eibar are currently 7 in the standings with 61 points from 37 matches. The record of 17 wins, 10 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 45:32 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through Javier Marton (12 goals), J. Bautista (6 goals), A. Arbilla (4 goals), with creative support from José Corpas (6 assists), A. Garrido (4 assists), Javier Marton (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 13 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Malaga Analysis

Malaga sit 8 with 60 points after 37 league matches. Their overall return of 17 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 62:47 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Chupe (19 goals), A. Nino (10 goals), David Larrubia (9 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (4 assists), Chupe (3 assists), David Larrubia (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Eibar won 6 times, Malaga won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:17 from Eibar's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Eibar 4-2-3-1 / Malaga 4-4-2
H2H summary: Eibar wins 6, draws 5, Malaga wins 4

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8
Eibar Home
42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
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