IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
08.05.2026 18:45
Oriel Park
Dundalk
Match Timeline
Bohemians
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Sam Todd
Bohemians
⚽
34'
A. Dervin · Assist: G. Arubi
Dundalk
🟨
36'
Patrick Hickey
Bohemians
🔄
46'
D. Horgan ↔ H. Groome
Dundalk
🔄
46'
N. Morahan ↔ D. Power
Bohemians
🔄
46'
A. McDonnell ↔ S. Diallo
Bohemians
🔄
46'
H. Vaughan ↔ D. James-Taylor
Bohemians
⚽
50'
R. Tierney · Assist: D. James-Taylor
Bohemians
🔄
57'
S. Todd ↔ L. Kavanagh
Bohemians
🟨
59'
Robert Cornwall
Dundalk
🟨
61'
Keith Buckley
Dundalk
🟨
63'
Eoin Kenny
Dundalk
🟥
67'
Robert Cornwall
Dundalk
⚽
68'
D. James-Taylor
Bohemians
🔄
69'
R. Teahan ↔ D. McDaid
Dundalk
🔄
69'
K. Buckley ↔ H. Warren
Dundalk
🟨
71'
Douglas James-Taylor
Bohemians
🔄
78'
C. Whelan ↔ Z. Myers
Bohemians
🟨
83'
Gbemi Arubi
Dundalk
🔄
83'
J. Wilson ↔ L. Gaxha
Dundalk
⚽
90'
Z. Myers · Assist: D. Devoy
Bohemians

Dundalk vs Bohemians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 5.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
5.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 63.2%
Draw 7.8%
Bohemians Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.53
Bohemians1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
32 GF / 26 GA
Bohemians Bohemians
WLDWL
31 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1
12
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
10
6.4
Shots on Goal
5.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 17 matches
Bohemians Bohemians 21 matches
Dundalk Statistic Bohemians
6 Wins 8
7 Draws 9
4 Losses 4
32 Goals For 31
26 Goals Against 21
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1
12 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 4
6.4 Shots On Goal 5.4
17.13 Total Shots 14.8
6.73 Corners 5.73
51.7% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bohemians. Bohemians arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Dundalk Analysis

Dundalk arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 22 points after 15 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 26:23 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Horgan (5 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), Declan McDaid (3 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (4 assists), G. Arubi (2 assists), E. Kenny (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Bohemians Analysis

Bohemians approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 3 with 22 points from 15 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 3 defeats with a 18:14 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on C. Whelan (6 goals), M. Strods (2 goals), Patrick Hickey (2 goals), with creative support from C. Whelan (2 assists), M. Strods (2 assists), R. Tierney (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 6 times, Bohemians won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:20 from Dundalk's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Bohemians 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 6, draws 4, Bohemians wins 5

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 32 9 13 10 42:45 -3 40
D W L L D
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation