SPAIN › LA LIGA
03.05.2026 12:00
Estadio Abanca Balaídos
Referee: R. De Burgos
Celta Vigo
Match Timeline
Elche
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
H. Alvarez · Assist: J. Rueda
Celta Vigo
🟨
28'
Gonzalo Villar
Elche
⚽
30'
I. Aspas · Assist: F. Jutgla
Celta Vigo
🟨
41'
Javier Rueda
Celta Vigo
🔄
46'
J. Rueda ↔ M. Fernandez
Celta Vigo
🔄
58'
D. Affengruber ↔ V. Chust
Elche
🔄
58'
G. Villar ↔ M. Neto
Elche
🔄
63'
I. Aspas ↔ J. El Abdellaoui
Celta Vigo
🔄
69'
A. Pedrosa ↔ Josan
Elche
🔄
69'
Tete Morente ↔ H. Fort
Elche
🔄
71'
H. Alvarez ↔ W. Swedberg
Celta Vigo
🔄
71'
F. Jutgla ↔ B. Iglesias
Celta Vigo
🔄
77'
M. Aguado ↔ L. Cepeda
Elche
🔄
78'
A. Nunez ↔ O. Mingueza
Celta Vigo
⚽
82'
Andre Silva
Elche
🟨
83'
Yoel Lago
Celta Vigo
⚽
85'
B. Iglesias · Assist: W. Swedberg
Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo vs Elche Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Celta Vigo Win 35.9%
Draw 8.4%
Elche Win 55.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Celta Vigo1.42
Elche1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo
WWDLW
71 GF / 64 GA
Elche Elche
WLDWL
52 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
32
BTTS Yes
25
26
Over 2.5
23
4.1
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 50 matches
Elche Elche 37 matches
Celta Vigo Statistic Elche
19 Wins 12
15 Draws 11
16 Losses 14
71 Goals For 52
64 Goals Against 53
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
32 BTTS Yes 25
42 Over 1.5 29
26 Over 2.5 23
11 Over 3.5 15
13 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 5
4.1 Shots On Goal 3.75
10.72 Total Shots 10.47
3.94 Corners 3.81
49.7% Ball Possession 55.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Celta Vigo's more proactive style and Elche's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Elche look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Celta Vigo expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Elche in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Elche having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Elche.

Celta Vigo Analysis

Celta Vigo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 44 points from 33 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 45:43, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through B. Iglesias (12 goals), Ferran Jutglà (7 goals), Iago Aspas (4 goals), with creative support from J. Rueda (4 assists), Óscar Mingueza (4 assists), Iago Aspas (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Elche Analysis

With 38 points from 33 games and a place of 14, Elche still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 44:50 goal record continues to suggest very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking burden often falls on Andre Silva (9 goals), R. Mir (8 goals), A. Rodriguez (5 goals), with creative support from A. Rodriguez (5 assists), M. Neto (5 assists), G. Valera (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Celta Vigo won 6 times, Elche won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from Celta Vigo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.83 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Celta Vigo 3-4-3 / Elche 5-3-2
Missing players: Celta Vigo 4, Elche 3
H2H summary: Celta Vigo wins 6, draws 2, Elche wins 4

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15
Elche Away
38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2