GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
02.05.2026 16:30
BayArena
Referee: Tobias Welz, Germany
Bayer Leverkusen
Match Timeline
RB Leipzig
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Max Finkgräfe
RB Leipzig
25'
P. Schick · Assist: N. Tella
Bayer Leverkusen
45'
N. Tella · Assist: A. Garcia
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
46'
E. Bitshiabu ↔ C. Lukeba
RB Leipzig
🔄
46'
A. Nusa ↔ B. Gruda
RB Leipzig
🔄
65'
N. Seiwald ↔ A. Ouedraogo
RB Leipzig
🔄
65'
Romulo Cardoso ↔ C. Harder
RB Leipzig
🟨
72'
Xaver Schlager
RB Leipzig
76'
P. Schick · Assist: I. Maza
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
77'
N. Tella ↔ E. Poku
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
77'
M. Culbreath ↔ Arthur
Bayer Leverkusen
80'
C. Baumgartner · Assist: B. Gruda
RB Leipzig
🟨
84'
Christoph Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
🔄
84'
M. Finkgrafe ↔ B. Henrichs
RB Leipzig
🔄
85'
A. Garcia ↔ E. Fernandez
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
85'
I. Maza ↔ M. Tillman
Bayer Leverkusen
🟨
86'
Malik Tillman
Bayer Leverkusen
89'
P. Schick · Assist: A. Grimaldo
Bayer Leverkusen
VAR
90'
Patrik Schick
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
90+3'
P. Schick ↔ C. Kofane
Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 91.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
91.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bayer Leverkusen Win 33.1%
Draw 8%
RB Leipzig Win 59%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayer Leverkusen1.58
RB Leipzig1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
WWDLW
78 GF / 59 GA
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
WLDWL
62 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
2
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
24
BTTS Yes
18
22
Over 2.5
21
4.67
Shots on Goal
6.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 43 matches
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 31 matches
Bayer Leverkusen Statistic RB Leipzig
20 Wins 19
12 Draws 5
11 Losses 7
78 Goals For 62
59 Goals Against 38
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
24 BTTS Yes 18
36 Over 1.5 26
22 Over 2.5 21
15 Over 3.5 14
13 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 3
4.67 Shots On Goal 6.06
13.79 Total Shots 16
5.23 Corners 5.55
57.5% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. RB Leipzig look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bayer Leverkusen expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and RB Leipzig in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward RB Leipzig having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward RB Leipzig.

Bayer Leverkusen Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen are currently 6 in the standings with 55 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 16 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 62:42 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Schick (13 goals), A. Grimaldo (8 goals), M. Tillman (6 goals), with creative support from A. Grimaldo (7 assists), A. Garcia (6 assists), E. Poku (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

RB Leipzig Analysis

RB Leipzig approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 62 points after 31 outings. They have recorded 19 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, with a 62:38 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on C. Baumgartner (12 goals), Yan Diomande (12 goals), Romulo Cardoso (10 goals), with creative support from Yan Diomande (8 assists), C. Baumgartner (7 assists), D. Raum (6 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 6 times, RB Leipzig won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:23 from Bayer Leverkusen's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1 / RB Leipzig 4-3-3
Missing players: Bayer Leverkusen 4, RB Leipzig 6
H2H summary: Bayer Leverkusen wins 6, draws 4, RB Leipzig wins 5

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation