ITALY SERIE A
02.05.2026 18:45
New Balance Arena
Referee: I. Pezzuto
Atalanta
Match Timeline
Genoa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Alexsandro Amorim
Genoa
🔄
56'
L. Colombo ↔ C. Ekuban
Genoa
🔄
57'
G. Scamacca ↔ G. Raspadori
Atalanta
🔄
57'
B. Djimsiti ↔ I. Hien
Atalanta
🟨
64'
Éderson
Atalanta
🔄
69'
Amorim ↔ Junior Messias
Genoa
🔄
70'
J. Ekhator ↔ R. Malinovskyi
Genoa
🔄
76'
M. De Roon ↔ M. Pasalic
Atalanta
🔄
76'
C. De Ketelaere ↔ L. Samardzic
Atalanta
🟨
78'
Nikola Krstović
Atalanta
🔄
85'
D. Zappacosta ↔ Y. Musah
Atalanta
🔄
86'
S. Sabelli ↔ A. Martin
Genoa
🔄
86'
Vitinha ↔ P. Masini
Genoa

Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 34.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
34.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atalanta Win 58.1%
Draw 14.4%
Genoa Win 27.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atalanta1.45
Genoa1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atalanta Atalanta
WWDLW
73 GF / 58 GA
Genoa Genoa
WLDWL
46 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
26
BTTS Yes
20
24
Over 2.5
22
4.58
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atalanta Atalanta 50 matches
Genoa Genoa 37 matches
Atalanta Statistic Genoa
21 Wins 12
15 Draws 9
14 Losses 16
73 Goals For 46
58 Goals Against 53
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
26 BTTS Yes 20
39 Over 1.5 31
24 Over 2.5 22
13 Over 3.5 8
17 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 13
4.58 Shots On Goal 3.97
14.72 Total Shots 11.78
5.38 Corners 3.76
53.9% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Atalanta's more proactive style and Genoa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Genoa. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atalanta expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Genoa in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Genoa having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Genoa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Atalanta Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Atalanta have collected 54 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 14 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 47:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), N. Krstovic (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Genoa Analysis

Genoa sit 14 with 39 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats with a 40:48 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals), Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals), Leo Østigård (5 goals), with creative support from Aarón Martín (5 assists), Ruslan Malinovskyi (3 assists), Alessandro Marcandalli (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atalanta won 9 times, Genoa won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:14 from Atalanta's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Atalanta 3-4-2-1 / Genoa 3-5-2
Missing players: Atalanta 1, Genoa 2
H2H summary: Atalanta wins 9, draws 5, Genoa wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16
Genoa Away
38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B