ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
03.05.2026 18:00
Villa Park
Referee: S. Barrott
Aston Villa
Match Timeline
Tottenham
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
C. Gallagher
Tottenham
25'
Richarlison · Assist: M. Tel
Tottenham
🟨
27'
Randal Kolo Muani
Tottenham
🟨
45'
Rodrigo Bentancur
Tottenham
🟨
51'
Ross Barkley
Aston Villa
🔄
60'
T. Abraham ↔ O. Watkins
Aston Villa
🔄
67'
R. Bentancur ↔ Y. Bissouma
Tottenham
🔄
67'
R. Kolo Muani ↔ D. Spence
Tottenham
🟨
73'
Mathys Tel
Tottenham
🟨
77'
Morgan Rogers
Aston Villa
🟨
81'
Kevin Danso
Tottenham
🔄
85'
J. Sancho ↔ L. Bailey
Aston Villa
🔄
85'
R. Barkley ↔ E. Buendia
Aston Villa
🟨
90+6'
Conor Gallagher
Tottenham
🔄
90+1'
Richarlison ↔ P. M. Sarr
Tottenham
🔄
90+1'
M. Tel ↔ L. Bergvall
Tottenham
90'
E. Buendia · Assist: M. Cash
Aston Villa

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aston Villa Win 84.8%
Draw 0%
Tottenham Win 15.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa1.52
Tottenham1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WWDLW
74 GF / 54 GA
Tottenham Tottenham
WLDWL
68 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
1.51
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
25
BTTS Yes
26
24
Over 2.5
30
4.57
Shots on Goal
4.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aston Villa Aston Villa 49 matches
Tottenham Tottenham 46 matches
Aston Villa Statistic Tottenham
29 Wins 14
7 Draws 13
13 Losses 19
74 Goals For 68
54 Goals Against 71
1.51 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
25 BTTS Yes 26
35 Over 1.5 38
24 Over 2.5 30
13 Over 3.5 16
16 Clean Sheets 14
11 Failed To Score 8
4.57 Shots On Goal 4.28
12.43 Total Shots 11.65
5.16 Corners 5.02
53.8% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Aston Villa's more proactive style and Tottenham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tottenham. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aston Villa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 58 points compared to Tottenham in 18 on 34, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Aston Villa Analysis

Placed 5 with 58 points from 34 outings, Aston Villa continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 17 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, while the 47:42 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on O. Watkins (11 goals), M. Rogers (9 goals), Emiliano Buendía (5 goals), with creative support from M. Rogers (5 assists), Lucas Digne (5 assists), Y. Tielemans (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 11 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Tottenham Analysis

Tottenham approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 34 points from 34 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 43:53 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Richarlison (9 goals), Cristian Romero (4 goals), J. Palhinha (4 goals), with creative support from M. Kudus (5 assists), X. Simons (5 assists), Richarlison (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aston Villa won 8 times, Tottenham won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:27 from Aston Villa's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 / Tottenham 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Aston Villa 2, Tottenham 11
H2H summary: Aston Villa wins 8, draws 0, Tottenham wins 7

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship