ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
18.05.2026 19:00
Emirates Stadium
Referee: P. Tierney
Arsenal
Match Timeline
Burnley
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Hannibal Mejbri
Burnley
⚽
37'
K. Havertz · Assist: B. Saka
Arsenal
🟨
67'
Kai Havertz
Arsenal
🔄
70'
H. Mejbri ↔ Z. Amdouni
Burnley
🔄
71'
L. Ugochukwu ↔ J. Laurent
Burnley
🔄
72'
R. Calafiori ↔ P. Hincapie
Arsenal
🔄
73'
K. Havertz ↔ V. Gyökeres
Arsenal
🔄
73'
E. Eze ↔ M. Lewis-Skelly
Arsenal
🔄
78'
Florentino ↔ J. Ward-Prowse
Burnley
🔄
82'
L. Tchaouna ↔ J. Bruun Larsen
Burnley
🔄
82'
M. Esteve ↔ B. Humphreys
Burnley
🟨
90+4'
Lucas Pires
Burnley
🟨
90+1'
Zian Flemming
Burnley
🔄
90+3'
L. Trossard ↔ G. Martinelli
Arsenal
🔄
90+3'
M. Odegaard ↔ M. Zubimendi
Arsenal

Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 47.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 40.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
47.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
40.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Arsenal Win 100%
Draw 0%
Burnley Win 3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal2
Burnley0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arsenal Arsenal
WWDLW
108 GF / 36 GA
Burnley Burnley
WLDWL
43 GF / 76 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.13
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
2
25
BTTS Yes
23
29
Over 2.5
21
5.31
Shots on Goal
3.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arsenal Arsenal 54 matches
Burnley Burnley 38 matches
Arsenal Statistic Burnley
38 Wins 5
10 Draws 9
6 Losses 24
108 Goals For 43
36 Goals Against 76
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 2
25 BTTS Yes 23
41 Over 1.5 33
29 Over 2.5 21
15 Over 3.5 16
28 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 13
5.31 Shots On Goal 3.18
14.91 Total Shots 9.79
5.81 Corners 3.71
55.9% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Arsenal's more proactive style and Burnley's more cautious structure. Arsenal appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Burnley. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Burnley. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Burnley arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Arsenal arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 79 points compared to Burnley in 19 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Arsenal Analysis

Arsenal come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 79 points after 36 matches. The return of 24 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 68:26, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through V. Gyokeres (14 goals), B. Saka (7 goals), E. Eze (7 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (6 assists), D. Rice (6 assists), M. Odegaard (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 14 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Merino, J. Timber, R. Calafiori unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Burnley Analysis

With 21 points from 36 games and a place of 19, Burnley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 23 defeats, and the 37:73 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Z. Flemming (10 goals), J. Anthony (8 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (4 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without J. Beyer, J. Cullen, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal won 11 times, Burnley won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:7 from Arsenal's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Arsenal 4-2-3-1 / Burnley 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Arsenal 4, Burnley 2
H2H summary: Arsenal wins 11, draws 3, Burnley wins 1

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship