05.05.2026 19:00
Emirates Stadium
Referee: D. Siebert
Arsenal
Match Timeline
Atletico Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Arsenal
44'
B. Saka
Arsenal
🔄
57'
R. Le Normand ↔ A. Sorloth
Atletico Madrid
🔄
57'
A. Lookman ↔ N. Molina
Atletico Madrid
🔄
57'
G. Simeone ↔ J. Cardoso
Atletico Madrid
🔄
58'
B. Saka ↔ N. Madueke
Arsenal
🔄
58'
R. Calafiori ↔ P. Hincapie
Arsenal
🔄
59'
E. Eze ↔ M. Odegaard
Arsenal
🔄
66'
A. Griezmann ↔ A. Baena
Atletico Madrid
🔄
66'
J. Alvarez ↔ T. Almada
Atletico Madrid
🔄
74'
M. Lewis-Skelly ↔ M. Zubimendi
Arsenal
🟨
81'
Marc Pubill
Atletico Madrid
🔄
83'
L. Trossard ↔ G. Martinelli
Arsenal
🟨
90+5'
Koke
Atletico Madrid

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arsenal Win 69.7%
Draw 0%
Atletico Madrid Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal1.74
Atletico Madrid1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arsenal Arsenal
WWDLW
106 GF / 36 GA
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WLDWL
108 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
2.04
Average Goals Scored
1.96
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
25
BTTS Yes
33
29
Over 2.5
34
5.4
Shots on Goal
5.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arsenal Arsenal 52 matches
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 55 matches
Arsenal Statistic Atletico Madrid
36 Wins 30
10 Draws 10
6 Losses 15
106 Goals For 108
36 Goals Against 71
2.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
25 BTTS Yes 33
41 Over 1.5 46
29 Over 2.5 34
15 Over 3.5 22
26 Clean Sheets 17
4 Failed To Score 6
5.4 Shots On Goal 5.31
14.94 Total Shots 13.49
5.88 Corners 5.91
55.8% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Atletico Madrid seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Atletico Madrid controlled more possession in the first leg (52% against 48%). Atletico Madrid carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 4 shots on goal compared to 2. Atletico Madrid circulated the ball more often, making 505 passes to 480 and completing 420. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arsenal expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atletico Madrid in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Madrid having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Arsenal come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Madrid. Arsenal arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 24 points compared to Atletico Madrid in 14 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Arsenal Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Arsenal arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 24 points after 8 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 23:4 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on G. Martinelli (6 goals), V. Gyokeres (5 goals), K. Havertz (3 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (4 assists), G. Martinelli (2 assists), V. Gyokeres (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Merino, J. Timber, M. Odegaard unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Atletico Madrid enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 8 matches, placing them 14 in their league. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 17:15, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Alvarez (10 goals), A. Sorloth (6 goals), M. Llorente (5 goals), with creative support from A. Griezmann (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Matteo Ruggeri (3 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without P. Barrios, M. Llorente, A. Sorloth, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal won 2 times, Atletico Madrid won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:4 from Arsenal's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Arsenal 4-3-3 / Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Arsenal 2, Atletico Madrid 2
H2H summary: Arsenal wins 2, draws 3, Atletico Madrid wins 1

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2 8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3 8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4 8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5 8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8 8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9 8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10 8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11 8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12 8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13 8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14 8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15 8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16 8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17 8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18 8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19 8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21 8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22 8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23 8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24 8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31 8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32 8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)