Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
69.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
74.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
69.9%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Arsenal
52 matches
Atletico Madrid
55 matches
| Arsenal | Statistic | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Wins | 30 |
| 10 | Draws | 10 |
| 6 | Losses | 15 |
| 106 | Goals For | 108 |
| 36 | Goals Against | 71 |
| 2.04 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.96 |
| 0.69 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
| 25 | BTTS Yes | 33 |
| 41 | Over 1.5 | 46 |
| 29 | Over 2.5 | 34 |
| 15 | Over 3.5 | 22 |
| 26 | Clean Sheets | 17 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 5.4 | Shots On Goal | 5.31 |
| 14.94 | Total Shots | 13.49 |
| 5.88 | Corners | 5.91 |
| 55.8% | Ball Possession | 52.1% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Atletico Madrid seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Atletico Madrid controlled more possession in the first leg (52% against 48%). Atletico Madrid carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 4 shots on goal compared to 2. Atletico Madrid circulated the ball more often, making 505 passes to 480 and completing 420. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arsenal expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atletico Madrid in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Madrid having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Arsenal come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Madrid. Arsenal arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 24 points compared to Atletico Madrid in 14 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency.
Ahead of this knockout test, Arsenal arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 24 points after 8 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 23:4 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on G. Martinelli (6 goals), V. Gyokeres (5 goals), K. Havertz (3 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (4 assists), G. Martinelli (2 assists), V. Gyokeres (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Merino, J. Timber, M. Odegaard unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Atletico Madrid enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 8 matches, placing them 14 in their league. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 17:15, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Alvarez (10 goals), A. Sorloth (6 goals), M. Llorente (5 goals), with creative support from A. Griezmann (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Matteo Ruggeri (3 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without P. Barrios, M. Llorente, A. Sorloth, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.
Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal won 2 times, Atletico Madrid won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:4 from Arsenal's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
Home
|
8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 19 | 24 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 14 | 21 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 12 | 18 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 10 | 17 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 8 | 16 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 16 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 16 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 6 | 16 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 9 | 15 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 8 | 15 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 10 | 14 |
D
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 10 | 14 |
D
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 4 | 13 |
D
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 14 |
Atletico Madrid
Away
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 2 | 13 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
| 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 13 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | -1 | 12 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 2 | 11 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | -4 | 11 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | -2 | 10 |
W
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 10 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | -6 | 10 |
D
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | -8 | 10 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 23 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | -1 | 9 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | -2 | 9 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | -3 | 9 |
L
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 26 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 9 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 27 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | -9 | 9 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 28 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 0 | 8 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 29 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 8 |
L
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 30 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 |
L
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 31 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | -9 | 8 |
L
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 6 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | -11 | 4 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 34 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | -14 | 3 |
L
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | -13 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 36 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | -15 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|