SAUDI-ARABIA › PRO LEAGUE
07.05.2026 18:00
Al-Shabab Club Stadium
Referee: V. Fotias
Al Shabab
Match Timeline
Al-Nassr
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
Joao Felix
Al-Nassr
⚽
10'
Joao Felix · Assist: A. Ghareeb
Al-Nassr
⚽
30'
Y. Carrasco
Al Shabab
🔄
71'
A. Ghareeb ↔ N. Boushal
Al-Nassr
⚽
75'
C. Ronaldo · Assist: S. Mane
Al-Nassr
🔄
78'
A. Azaizeh ↔ A. Al Othman
Al Shabab
🔄
78'
V. Sierro ↔ B. Al Sayyali
Al Shabab
⚽
80'
A. Al Bulayhi · Assist: H. Al Hammami
Al Shabab
🟨
85'
Saad Yaslam Balobaid
Al Shabab
🔄
86'
S. Al Ghannam ↔ S. Al Nasser
Al-Nassr
🔄
86'
A. Yahya ↔ S. Al Najdi
Al-Nassr
🟨
90+7'
Marcelo Grohe
Al Shabab
🟨
90+9'
Salem Alnajdi
Al-Nassr
VAR
90+6'
Abdullah Al-Hamdan
Al-Nassr
🔄
90+1'
C. Ronaldo ↔ A. Al Hamdan
Al-Nassr
🔄
90+1'
M. Brozovic ↔ A. Al Hassan
Al-Nassr
⚽
90'
Joao Felix
Al-Nassr

Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Al Shabab Win 20.6%
Draw 3.6%
Al-Nassr Win 75.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al Shabab1.07
Al-Nassr2.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al Shabab Al Shabab
WWDLW
38 GF / 48 GA
Al-Nassr Al-Nassr
WLDWL
82 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
2.65
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
0.77
18
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
20
4.7
Shots on Goal
7.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al Shabab Al Shabab 30 matches
Al-Nassr Al-Nassr 31 matches
Al Shabab Statistic Al-Nassr
7 Wins 26
11 Draws 1
12 Losses 4
38 Goals For 82
48 Goals Against 24
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 2.65
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 0.77
18 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 27
12 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 15
7 Clean Sheets 17
8 Failed To Score 0
4.7 Shots On Goal 7.1
13.07 Total Shots 18.42
5.4 Corners 7.03
48.2% Ball Possession 59%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Al-Nassr's more proactive style and Al Shabab's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Al-Nassr. Al-Nassr carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 79 points while Al Shabab sit 13 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Al-Nassr look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Al Shabab expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Al-Nassr in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Al-Nassr having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Al Shabab Analysis

Al Shabab sit 13 with 32 points after 30 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 38:48 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Y. Carrasco (15 goals), A. Hamdallah (6 goals), J. Brownhill (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Carrasco (5 assists), A. Hamdallah (2 assists), J. Brownhill (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Al-Nassr Analysis

Al-Nassr come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 79 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 26 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, with a 82:24 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on C. Ronaldo (25 goals), Joao Felix (17 goals), K. Coman (9 goals), with creative support from Joao Felix (12 assists), K. Coman (10 assists), Angelo (6 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 12 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Al Shabab won 3 times, Al-Nassr won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:35 from Al Shabab's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Al Shabab 4-2-3-1 / Al-Nassr 4-4-2
H2H summary: Al Shabab wins 3, draws 3, Al-Nassr wins 9

Standings

Saudi League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 2 4 91:28 63 86
W D W L W
2 34 25 9 0 85:27 58 84
W W D W W
3 34 25 6 3 71:25 46 81
W W W W W
4 34 23 8 3 83:34 49 77
W W W W W
5 34 16 7 11 55:48 7 55
L L W W D
6 34 15 8 11 59:46 13 53
L D L W L
7 34 14 8 12 51:55 -4 50
D L W D W
8 34 12 9 13 43:48 -5 45
D L W D D
9 34 11 9 14 38:57 -19 42
W L D L D
10 34 10 8 16 41:54 -13 38
L L L W D
11 34 9 10 15 41:55 -14 37
D W L L D
12 34 10 7 17 54:62 -8 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 44:57 -13 35
L W L L L
14 34 9 6 19 39:61 -22 33
D L D D D
15 34 7 9 18 35:63 -28 30
W D W L L
16 34 6 11 17 32:55 -23 29
L W L L L
17 34 5 5 24 27:70 -43 20
L W D L L
18 34 3 7 24 32:76 -44 16
W L D D L
Champions League Elite
Champions League 2
Relegation