Learning betting – How to bet on fixed matches
Have you ever tried betting on fixed matches? Is there any way for you to identify a match that is likely to be fixed? Well, you are at the right place because in this article we will be discussing on fixed matches and how to skip being seduced by the Fixed Match Tipping Scam.
So let’s make it clear from the very start. Ignore those kinds of messages that you may receive on a text message, email or social media post from anybody that is looking to sell you information for an upcoming event that they claim is already fixed. Just ignore it. Don’t reply and don’t send them any money. If someone knows that the result is fixed why would they send out to thousands of people many emails informing about it? Is there a necessity of informing the world on social media?
So you might say that they are trying to sell the information that way so they can earn money. But if they know that the result is fixed why wouldn’t they just dump a mountain of cash on the fixed result with their bookmaker? You know. Why would they make themselves vulnerable to any authority looking to investigate the fixing of sporting events by becoming even more vulnerable to criminal prosecution?
The Scam Called “The Fixed Game”
The offer of information on fixed matches in exchange for money is already a scam, to put it bluntly. Those people who are perpetrating the scam have no knowledge neither posses any such inside information. You may have come across on Facebook accounts like the one displayed below that are promoting tips for fixed matches.
So you question yourself how does the scam work? It’s pretty simple actually.
Each scammer is paying for information on an upcoming football match, and let’s say that the scammers receive 100 responses, that they claim to know is fixed. They spread the word to a third of their respondents that the home team is going to win. But to another third, they give information that the away team is going to win. And the last third has the info that the game will end in a draw.
The match has been played and it’s over. The thirds of the respondents will naturally lose and will be obviously feeling cheated by the scammers, but one third will win with the other bet tip and now will believe that the scammers may really have some inside knowledge about fixed football matches.
So a week later another email has been sent by the scammers to the respondents who won on the previous fixed game tip. But this time for the information the scammers double the price for the fixed game. The respondents feeling confident and flush with cash are happy to pay double in exchange for the info that appears to be another sure winning bet. The dividing of the respondents happens again at this point, the well known a third for the home team, a third for the away team and a third for a draw.
And now again we have the two thirds that feel cheated as they lose their bets but remember now there is a group that has won two consecutive bets, and now are totally bought into the scam and truly believe that they are getting an inside information on fixed football games.
Another week passes and the chain of emails is just growing but now with ten times the price for the inside information. Those respondents with the previous happy results are super confident and they believe that this is a guaranteed winner. So this process continues week after week with the scammers raking in the money for this kind of fraudulent information, while every respondent will eventually lose and in some cases, the losses can be quite considerable.
So that’s why you shouldn’t be replying to any emails, text messages or social media posts, so you don’t get fooled by the fixed game scam. And of course, don’t send out your money.
How To Identify A Fixed Match
There is no doubt that match-fixing does occur with having said all of that. In sports such as basketball, tennis, cricket, and football, of course, it has been exposed and reported on a number occasions. But if sporting events are fixed from time to time, how can we identify them?
#1 – Irregular Pre-Match Odds
Betting odds are typically a reflection of the money that is being bet on a certain outcome. If Chelsea, for example, is listed at odds of 2.30 to defeat Arsenal and then it starts a stream of money being bet on Chelsea in the days that are leading up to the match, then the bookmaker will cut Chelsea’s odds accordingly. So the betting market this way can be regarded similarly to a financial market by having the options of “buying” and “selling” for particular match outcomes. The market adjusts accordingly as more punters “buy” Chelsea’s odds to win the match. It’s very simple, as the demand for Chelsea’s win odd goes up, their odds go down.
So the next question is how can all this help us spot a fixed game? If we already know that the betting odds are a reflection of demand and supply, then match odds should be an accurate reflection of the true likelihood of an outcome occurring. A result has been fixed when the demand of the odds for a certain outcome becomes so great that it distorts the market, and then there is a good chance.
So if in the hours that lead up to a particular football the odds for a draw drop it is likely because there has been a large amount of money betting on the draw. Sometimes a slight drop in odds for a drawn result may be innocent enough because perhaps the weather forecast has changed, or the results of the other matches have diminished the need of one team that is competing to get a victory. But if the odds for a draw are significant then it’s due to the irregular and heavy plunge of money on the particular draw.
This can be most seeable at the end of the Serie A season, where the odds for draw results are quite irregular, by often being listed as shorter than even money. With clubs assisting one another with mutually beneficial results at the end of the season matches, as we all know that is a tradition of sorts in Serie A football. There have been 76 ends of season matches where the odds for a draw were the favored result with 30 matches of those matches listing the draw at kickoff at less than even money since the 2000/2001 Serie A season. 22 out of those 30 matches ended in a draw.
There are charts that show the weight of money traded on a drawn match for Betfair Serie A 1×2 markets for the 2nd and 3rd of April in 2011.
But there are situations as a sudden drop in the odds for a drawn result does not necessarily mean the match has been fixed in the pure sense of the term, or that there has been some kind of agreement between the teams that are competing to ensure a desirable result for each. A word of caution. It may be because simply be wanted for an idle gossip, better phrase, that snowballs to the point where everyone is betting on what they believe is a contrived outcome. In such cases the best way to make a profit is to back the draw before casual punters come hunting, wait for the money to come pouring in and for the odds for the draw to drop. And once the odds for the draw drop you should lay the draw shorter odds on Betfair or another betting exchange and secure sure profit for yourself.
#2 – Irregular In-Play Odds
Match-fixers have taken advantage also in In-play betting. Irregular in-play odds suggest something that is not quite right which is very similar to pre-match betting. There have been a number of instances in the recent years with the majority of in-play odds compiling being a fully automated process where irregular in-play odds and betting patterns have alerted authorities to the influence that brings this match-fixing syndicates.
There is a living example when a Swedish Superettan match between Jönköpings Södra and Syrianska in 2014 saw irregular in-play odds for the over 3.5 goals market. Typically the odds for this betting option are in the range of 2.50 to 3.00, and for this match, the odds for over 3.5 goals (l.e at least 4 goals) were low as even money. That was an indicator curious enough in itself. But the fact that just fifteen minutes into the match and the game was still at 0-0 without a goal scored, the weight of money saw the odds for Over 3.5 goals drop to as low as 1.50, which was the most glaring moment. Then when the home team scored in the 21st minute the odds for Over 3.5 goals rose to 1.70. When in the 51st minute the second goal was scored, money has been bet on the Under 4.5 goals market, a clear suggestion that the fixers knew the game would end up with just four goals scored. With Jönköpings Södra winning the match with 4-0 indeed it did.
#3 – Irregular officiating
Being a referee means you will make mistakes for sure. They make mistakes even often. These poor decisions generally are just errors of judgment. As sports fans we know some days the decisions fall your way and we may complain about poor officiating, but other days these decisions simply don’t so we accept a degree of a human error.
That’s why irregular officiating is another thing altogether. So how can we separate what’s an error of judgment from irregular officiating that may suggest that the referee is attempting to fix a result? Well, we have an example already. Do you remember the Bundesliga referee scandal in 2005 which saw referee Robert Hoyzer confess to both betting on and fixing matches in the German Cup and Regionalliga?
A German Cup match between Paderborn and Hamburg was determined in large part by the referee Hoyzer with officiating two controversial penalties awarded to Paderborn. In the same moment has been seen Hamburg player getting a red card for protesting one of the penalties given.
After 30 minutes Hamburg led 2-0 and seemed to be in control of the match, but in the 35th minute the first penalty was awarded to Paderborn with Mpenza sent off minutes later. The other penalty was also unreal, so to suggest that the penalties were soft would be an understatement. Paderborn would win the match 4-2.
But four referees approached the German Football Association raising their concerns regarding Hoyzer’s officiating. As a result of this criminal investigation, Hoyzer has been sentenced to 2 years and 5 months in prison and by being banned for life from giving any role in football. Another referee caught up in the scandal Dominik Marks, was likewise banned for life and received 1 year and 6 months prison sentence. Hamburg was awarded €2 million in compensation due to their elimination from the German Cup.
There have been more cases of referee scandals that aren’t just limited to football. One of the biggest was with the assistance of the FBI in 2007 in the NBA refereeing drama.
#4 Irregular Performances
Even the greatest players of any sport have a down day, so every player has a poor game once in a while. But also there are those moments that make you wanna say “What the … did just happened?”. A player can make an error, a dropped catch, a poor pass, an unruly attempt on goal, for sure, but from time to time we see players doing the thing that really makes us wonder.
Over the years there have been a lot of suspicious goalkeeping moments, even though when it comes to football no position on the field has the ability to influence a match as much as that of the goalkeeper.
Maybe the greatest of them all was Ferhat Kaplan’s “attempted save” of a Wesley Sneijder strike back in 2015. That was a bit suspicious don’t you think so? But the point shaving scheme was uncovered back in 1980 when conspirator Henry Hill (Yes, Henry Hill of the film Goodfellas) was charged with drug trafficking. It all started when Boston College basketball players were intimidated by and paid off by associated underworld figures and gamblers to win basketball games but by less than the point spread. Hill turned informant and alerted authorities to the Boston College point-shaving scheme seeking to escape prosecution and jail time.
#5 – Irregular Results
Sometimes teams that everyone thinks are certainly going to win, don’t always win, Upsets happen. In 2011, as an example, Blackburn defeated Manchester United at Old Trafford. Blackburn has entered the match with at odds of 24.00 and they have won 3-2. While the result was unlikely it doesn’t fall in the range of suspicious or outrageous. Or the game where Barcelona lost to Hercules 2-0 in 2010 has started the match at odds of 29.00 to get a victory. Still, Hercules won. But as we said, upsets happen, but when we are talking about irregular results we talk about results that simply don’t make any sense and appear absurd in the context of a genuine sporting contest. The most glaring example occurred in Nigeria in 2013. Following a farcical final match day relegation battle that saw two key matches end 67-0 and 79-0 as clubs attempted to enhance their goals difference, referees and officials were banned for life with the clubs suspended for 10 years.
The match-fixing is here to stay, unfortunately, no matter what measures of detection or laws authorities may implement. Through the manipulation of results, there will always be a criminal element that will look to gain an advantage in the betting markets. But we can still employ common sense and identify when a sporting event may, in fact, be fixed.
So finally we are going to say this again if anyone is claiming to offer you inside information on fixed results in exchange for money, just walk away. Walk away.