As an experienced MLS bettor raking in big profits over the years, I’m often asked about my winning strategies wagering on pro soccer matches. Predicting outcomes in a sport with as much variability as soccer is tricky, but absolutely achievable with the right philosophies and frameworks guiding your betting approach.
In this comprehensive guide, I’ll be sharing key insights from my journey to become an unstoppable MLS betting force. By implementing these tips on tracking table trends, line shopping, and targeting value, you too can crush sportsbooks and build your bankroll predicting soccer outcomes. Let’s kick things off.
Think Long-Term: It’s a Betting Marathon, Not a Sprint
The first philosophy to embrace when seeking betting success is that profits come long-term through consistency, not chasing big one-off wins. Too many bettors obsess about finding perfect picks each matchday or hitting massive accumulators, failing to think strategically about profits over a 34 match season.
But winning betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Even the best prognosticators have losing nights and cold streaks. Don’t let recency bias impact your confidence too greatly. Stick to studied processes, act decisively on opportunities using your frameworks, and let the law of averages work itself out. Going 60% on MLS picks over a season ensures you’ll have a hugely profitable year.
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Embrace Line Movement: Use it to Your Benefit
The betting lines sportsbooks set are incredibly useful sources of information that shift drastically from open to kickoff based on how actual bettors are wagering. Tracking line movement and interpreting what’s driving it must be a central part of your handicapping process.
For example, if a home team opens as a -150 favorite but the line drops to -120 closer to match time, it signals respected money is coming in heavy on the visitors. This means you should reassess your original lean considering sharp bettors see value on the other side.
By letting line movements guide you towards where the sharpest predictions are heading, you benefit from having tons of behavioral data at your disposal for making the best possible picks.
Build Your Own Ratings Model: Create Custom Lines
If you really want to thrive predicting soccer outcomes, creating your own projected lines through club and player rating algorithms is hugely advantageous. This allows you to immediately identify betting value when sportsbook lines differ significantly from your modeled projections.
“I invest lots of time tracking tons of metrics and trends to feed my MLS prediction formulas,” explains professional bettor Marco Ricci. “From quantifying shot creation rates to grading defensive pressure fits – combining this data mathematically enables winning long-term edges beating inefficient market SPL lines.”
The process of building custom projection models requires work, but provides incredible dividends spotting advantageous wagering opportunities.
Analyze Table Positions: Calculate Must-Win Scenarios
Too few casual fans realize the immense impact a club’s league table position has on their upcoming match motivations and predictions. Sides battling for the Supporters Shield or squeaking into playoff places will give maximum effort, while teams already eliminated may fade fast.
Assessing real-time table scenarios to quantify table positions and estimate must-win probabilities for each club should play a huge role in your handicapping process. This injects useful context into projection models and betting decisions.
Review Injury Impacts: How Will Starting XIs Change?
In a sport with substantial injury risks, checking player availability reports and projecting starting squad adjustments is mandatory before finalizing wagers. Will a key player’s absence force increased minutes for an inexperienced reserve? How will that tweak impact scoring prowess or defensive integrity?
“I have a whole protocol process reviewing physio reports, then cross-checking backup player history and tendencies to model potential quantitative impacts from XI changes,” explains soccer betting analyst Sabrina Ibarra. “An unplanned substitution throwing off squad chemistry can drastically influence the dynamics of an entire club – you must factor that into any match outcome predictions.”
Simply put: no bets should be placed before knowing injury statuses and projecting starting lineup shuffled based on updated depth charts. Far too often casual punters neglect this and suffer the consequences.
Target Weak Defenses: Identify Susceptible Back Lines
It can be tempting to always back MLS power clubs given their sustained dominance. However top sides see odds adjusted accordingly resulting in thin margins. Still, elite teams with offensive firepower deserve strong prognostications on most match days.
However…also remain vigilant targeting weak defensive clubs regardless of overall rating. Check recent goals conceded trends along with red card and injury concerns in back lines to spot fragile defenses primed for exploitation.
Some warning signs indicating a weak defensive club is ready for targeting:
- Conceded 2+ goals previous 3+ matches
- Missing starting centerback(s)
- Top wingback suspended next match
- Just lost defensive midfielder anchor to injury
Wagering in soccer requires ruthlessly targeting vulnerable defense just as much as praising powerful attacks. Successfully identifying fragile back lines can pay big dividends if spotted wisely.
Review Referee Assignments: Cards and Fouls Impact Flow
Believe it or not, monitoring which referees are assigned upcoming matches can provide valuable handicapping information predicting results by estimating foul rates and card risk. Some officials have tendencies significantly impacting pace and physicality based on their style.
For example, renown referee Ted Unkel averages over 4 yellow cards a match this season. That’s nearly 1 card higher than the MLS average. Knowing this injects useful intel projecting game flow and visiting teams facing early red card danger if getting too physical.
While less referenced than other factors, ref assignments bring helpful contextual advantages worth checking before making soccer bets.
Target Individual Matchups: Identify Talent Gradients
Club stats and ratings provide solid predictive foundations, but MLS opportunities often stem from individual player personality mismatches managers can exploit.
Sharp bettors analyze depth chart talent gradients to identify one-on-one matchup dilemmas unlikely to favor weaker players exposed isolated against superior talents. Other individual miscues may come from set piece defensive deficiencies vulnerable to precise wide service targeting aerial holes.
“I have a matrix of mediocre centerbacks unlikely to cope effectively when matched up against dominant target men,” professional bettor Victoria Cruz explains. “If I spot one of those shorter CBs facing a beastly striker, I’m jumping on player prop overs immediately.”
Pinpointing individual talent mismatches to attack can illuminate wagering situations with enhanced value upside compared to betting market consensus.
Manage Bankroll: Budget Picks Based on Edge
To become an unstoppable MLS betting force means adopting a strategically conservative bankroll management plan, not recklessly chasing losses through emotionally-charged parlays. Have a budgeting process to allocate units for wagering proportional to your projected edge and confidence intervals estimating each pick’s precision.
As a general bankroll management framework I recommend:
- 1 Unit on standard confidence choices
- 2 Units for major value variance over posted lines
- Maximum 5 Units in extremely rare high value situations
Even the best prognosticators lose 40% thanks to luck’s nature. Managing units relative to your projected edge prevents going on tilt while maintaining stability. Budgeting available bankroll wisely is equally as crucial as handicapping when aiming for unstoppable status predicting soccer.
Track Your Picks: Spot Habitual Prediction Failings
If excelling at MLS calls is the objective, meticulously tracking your picks history actual results is mandatory for growth. Maintain detailed records of all wagers with rationale and outcomes, reviewing with brutal honesty where your process succeeded vs where it failed.
Look for faulty decision-making tendencies sabotaging your hit rates like:
- Overreacting to recent news rather than long-term indicators
- Getting distracted from models by flashy trends
- Misjudging managerial impacts
Historical bet trackers enable auditing of biases and upgrading processes to maximize future prognostication success. Examine past performance often and unforgivingly – it holds the key towards unlocking untapped potential.
Continue Enhancing Knowledge: Expand from Multiple Expert Sources
To sustain unstoppable prognostic skills, continuing to learn from multiple credible information sources is hugely valuable keeping prediction models updated. Great places to expand insights include:
- Advanced statistical databases like Opta Sports
- Local beat reporters closely covering specific clubs
- Sports science writers detailing tactical innovations
- Youth talent scouts and development coaches
Pulling from diverse expertise compounds knowledge, enhancing your ability to foresee outcomes and situations others may overlook until it’s too late to leverage the value.
The Best Betting Sites for Betting MLS
While the handicapping and predictive advice covered so far are crucial for MLS wagering success, you also need to ensure you’re placing bets at advantageous sportsbooks. Not all sites post the same lines or offer ideal odds, so having accounts with multiple online sportsbooks allows for price shopping in search of ultimate value.
Here are my top recommended betting sites for wagering on Major League Soccer:
MyBookie
With a sleek interface, comprehensive MLS betting markets, and fast payouts, MyBookie has emerged as a top betting site for soccer punters. Their reduced juice odds are very bettor-friendly for a site focused on American players. Open to all states excluding Washington, Nevada, New Jersey & New York.
BetOnline
Trusted industry veteran operational for over 25+ years with lenient deposit methods, early lines, and special props. Great for finding best prices on MLS futures odds like Supporters Shield and MVP that public books won’t match.
Bovada
Dominant leader accepting US players with reduced juice odds. Robust live betting platform ideal for wagering MLS in-game. Superb mobile functionality and fast withdrawal speeds.
Check deposit bonus terms, look for reduced juice odds saving bettors money long-term, and line shop prices at all shortlisted sportsbooks for ultimate MLS wagering value profits.
Follow the blueprint outlined across handicapping processes, predictive modeling, line shopping disciplines and responsible bankroll management – and the path to MLS betting profits awaits. There will always be unpredictable variance and cold streaks. But over the long-term, dedicated prognosticators putting in the work to gain key information edges through leveraging data, injuries, disciplinaries, mismatches and more can ultimately triumph. Now let’s get to crushing sportsbooks through world class MLS forecasting.
