The Best Football Betting Strategies and Systems
There are numerous ways to tip the odds in our favor so that we minimize the risk and extract the maximum value. Even though there is no way for success to be guaranteed the two points that we just mentioned are the key to any football betting strategy. That’s why we are here to take you with some of the best football betting systems with all the highlights of value betting and how to find value bets.
Back & Lay
This is one of the best football betting systems and this strategy is all about minimizing the risk and the looking value. It guarantees profit if it works correctly, so the key to this strategy is a good eye for value and catching bets that you think that have been given longer odds that the ones that you think you deserve. And on top of this, it is essential to start using a betting exchange. Which one to rely on? The Betfair exchange is one of the best in the business so to explain its strategy you should cover the terminology first.
When you place a bet with a traditional online betting site backing the bet is the essential thing that you do, so let us give you an example. If you bet that Team 1 will beat Team 2, then you are backing Team 1 and the single outcome of them winning. So, laying that bet is what bookmakers do. So if we take the same bet as another example, the bookmakers have laid the bet of Team 1, which means that every other outcome will win for the bookie. When you bet, you are betting for something not to happen, and backing a bet is betting for something to happen.
How It Works
Now we’ll put our efforts to explain how this football system functions in practice, and there are many ways to go about this. We will cover the two of the most popular ones here, and as we mentioned earlier this works best if you can find bets that have a high value that you can actually capitalize on.
So, here we go! We will take as an example the same game above, and let’s say that you lay the draw on the exchange at odds of 4.5. If Team 1 takes the lead in the first half, then you can simply cash out for a profit. There is another option here, and that’s to hedge your bet by backing the draw. After the first goal of the favorites goes in, then the odds at bookies for that draw will rise. How do you get a guaranteed profit in this case? By backing these new odds with an amount that will cover your liability. Simple as that!
Again we go with an example, so if we place the $10 lay bet at odds of 4.00, then you can back the draw-in play after a goal at odds of 6.00 at $6.5. In this case, we would be able to guarantee a profit of $3 in the event of a draw and $3.5 if either team wins.
No matter if the profit is big or small, it will mean that whatever the outcome, you still make a profit. If you didn’t know this is a form of arbitrage betting, and nothing is guaranteed, of course. Also, you should know that the backed bet can’t be successfully made in the example above to guarantee profit without a goal being scored (since the odds for the draw would shrink, rather than rise).
This is the key to an overall approach to wagering on the sport. Value bets should be the main weapon in your arsenal which requires great experience and knowledge when it comes to assessing the probabilities of the outcome. And one thing to mention, any bet can lose and value betting is no different.
What Is Value Bet?
When trying to constitute a value bet it can vary from punter to punter and the ultimate reason for this is because a value bet is essentially a bet that you think has higher profitability of winning than a bookie has given it credit for.
So if you see the odds for the example of England to win a match are 20% chance of winning and that’s 4/1 but you believe their chance to win is much closer to 25%, then betting on England could represent a value. Yes, that’s right! What have we learned here? That the value bets mostly depend on a punter’s view that a bookmaker has made a mistake with pricing.
How Can You Work Out Value?
To know when a bet truly offers value or not you need the below-given formula. You will apply it and if the answer is greater than 1.00 they hey presto, you have a value bet!
Here comes the example match with England. If the odds of 4/1 (20%) or 5.00 in the decimal format are for a win, but we believe that in reality, the chances are more like 25%. In decimal format, these odds are 4.00 or 3/1 and by taking the original odds and our applied odds, we can form the following equation:
(5×25) / 100 = 1.25
With the odds applied the calculation comes out too greater than 1.00, which simply means that this is a value bet.
Any In-Play Betting Strategies to Use?
There are some new bet types, but live betting has enabled new forms of football strategies to emerge. It’s known of how much importance has in-play through online bookies brought on football, or even better said it made a revolution! It’s not possible to apply the same strategies or systems to in-play betting, unlike in pre-match wagers, but the most used and well known in-play strategy is to utilize the cash out function. The profit is based on different factors, like the time remaining and the odds of other events that are occurring which could cause the bet to lose.
Mathematical Approaches to Football Betting
Another great attribute that can help you with successful footie wagers is a good mathematical mind! Let us introduce you to a couple of football betting systems that rely on a math methodology, and yes entirely.
The Good: Kelly Criterion
This is a system that works out the optimal bet size that is based on the value offered from a bet. This is a very good approach to knowing how much to bet so you can extract value without taking excessive risk. There are two versions of the method, a full and fractional. For those who want to try it, you should know that the first is the risky one since it applies the full suggested amount while the latter uses just a fraction of the recommended amount.
Kelly Criterion Full
This one shows us the way how to employ the criterion’s formula so we can find out the optimum percentage of our bankroll we should use. So that you can see what percentage of your bankroll to bet you can use the following formula:
Kelly Criterion Fractional
Taking the fractional approach to this system allows a punter to bet a percentage of the optimum bet recommended by the Kelly formula. Before you go out and try this formula, this approach is more risk-averse and helps to protect the budget, but the returns are of course smaller too.
The Bad: Martingale System
Here the idea is that If you once win a match you’ll be into profit. But, this one has come under lots of analysis in recent years because this system is doubling the previous stake on each losing bet. Here, the huge problem is that in reality, the system doesn’t work so well, just because you need an extremely high bankroll to start with.
Before we finish, there are three things you should keep on your mind:
- Always look for value
- Use In-Play to your advantage
- Stick to your guts
It’s good to know that there is no guarantee in profit at any football betting strategy.
We wish you to find the system that works the best for you and we wish you luck.