When it comes to sport betting, progressive betting systems, like the Fibonacci betting system, are not used that widely. This is because they can be difficult to apply to sport betting, and the bets that you do apply them to are the ‘safer’ bets, which does take away some of the enjoyment of it. However, it is worth noting that there are some people out there who will make vast sums of cash going down this route. We are going to look at whether the potential rewards are worth the risk.
It was Fragiskos Archontakis and Evan Osborne who came up with the Fibonacci method for sport betting. They state that you bet on draws only. If you lose, bet on another one until you win. However, you should only bet on draws if they meet the following conditions:
- The probability is over 2.618
- When you bet, you bet in a way that follows the Fibonacci sequence.
For those who are unaware, the Fibonacci sequence works by adding the previous two numbers in the sequence together. So, this is how your bets would go if you continue to lose:
We are sure that you get what we mean here. It continues like this. It is a simple betting method, and you always know what you are going to stake as time goes on. However, it is worth noting that if you do have extensive losses, and there is no way in which you can predict a losing streak, you will end up blowing through your bank roll quickly, particularly once you start getting to the higher numbers in the sequence.
Using This Strategy
We are going to base using this strategy in practice on the 2011/2012 Premier League. There were 380 games played. Of these 380, 93 of them ended up in a draw. This means that 24.5% of matches were draws. On average, you would see a draw every four games. If you are betting, then you should get a payout back on every four games.
If you look at our Fibonacci number sequence above, you will see that you would normally see a payout on the 4th number. This is the number 3. This means that you will (assuming you are betting £1 each go), will be staking £7 before you see a win.
The average odds for a draw each season were 4.203. You multiply this number by your £3 stake. You get £12.61. Take away the money that you had staked to get to this point, this gives you £5.61. Multiply this by the number of games. You get £1786.70 profit over the season providing the odds workout the way you want them to. This is a good profit as it will all start from a very small stake. £1, in fact.
Are there drawbacks to this system?
You may think that the Fibonacci sequence is a licence to print money. It is not. There are a couple of drawbacks to this system.
Firstly, most of the games are going to be played concurrently. They do not occur one after another. This means that you will not have an opportunity to increase the amount that you are betting if you do not get that draw. All the matches will be finishing at the same time. This instantly reduces the number of games that you will be able to bet on. This means that the amount of potential profit you can make will be reduced drastically.
There are some people who get around this by always betting on the same team. The problem with this method is that teams can go a long time without a draw. In fact, teams have managed to go whole seasons without a draw. Let’s assume that there are 15 matches before a team has a draw. The Fibonacci sequence would look like this:
This means that you are staking £1596 without a win. Can your bank balance really manage losses that extensive? Although, if you do win with the odds we mentioned before, you will be getting £6707 back. This is a massive sum of cash to put down when the average return for most games will be about £20. Although, as you climb up the sequence and put more cash down on the chance of winning, your cash payout will climb up a lot. This is what happens when you get the upper end, although it will take a long time to get to that point.
Does the Fibonacci Betting Strategy Work?
The problem with this system is that it assumes that you have an unlimited bankroll and that there are unlimited limits at the casino that you are playing at. The chances of this are virtually nil. There are going to be constraints in place. This means that if you continue to lose on your bets, you may eventually hit the point where you are unable to stake any more. This means that you will have lost absolutely everything.
For this reason, the system is not going to be a profitable long term solution for you. Of course, when you are betting on draws, it is likely that you will never get to the point where you are spending wild amounts of cash, but the risk is going to be there. You really can’t take that risk, can you? Remember; some teams may be so terrible that they will always be taking in goals. Other teams may be so great that they are always scoring. You could bet on a ‘middle of the road’ team but, you have to remember that their odds will be so low, that you will not be able to make use of this system.